In today’s rapidly changing business landscape, uncertainty has become the only certainty. From global pandemics and economic downturns to technological disruptions and geopolitical tensions, leaders at all levels face unprecedented challenges that require a new playbook. Yet despite the overwhelming nature of uncertainty, some leaders not only survive but thrive during turbulent times. What sets these exceptional leaders apart? Is there a secret formula to leading effectively when the future is unclear? The answer lies not in having all the solutions, but in adopting specific mindsets and practices that transform uncertainty from a threat into an opportunity for growth and innovation.
Uncertainty triggers our most primitive responses—fight, flight, or freeze. When we can’t predict outcomes or control variables, our brains naturally perceive danger. For leaders, this biological reality creates a significant challenge: how to make sound decisions and inspire others while managing their own natural stress responses. The most effective leaders during uncertain times understand that leading through uncertainty requires both emotional intelligence and strategic foresight. It demands the ability to acknowledge reality while maintaining optimism, to act decisively with incomplete information, and to create stability while embracing necessary change.
According to research from UC Berkeley’s Executive Leadership program, leaders who excel during uncertain times share common traits and practices that enable them to navigate complexity while keeping their teams engaged and productive. These leaders understand that uncertainty, while challenging, also creates unique opportunities for innovation, growth, and competitive advantage—if approached with the right mindset and strategies.
The Psychology of Leading Through Uncertainty
Before exploring tactical approaches to uncertainty, we must understand the psychological dynamics at play. Uncertainty triggers what neuroscientists call an “ambiguity penalty” in the brain—a state where unclear outcomes are perceived as more threatening than known negative outcomes. This explains why people often prefer bad news to no news; at least with bad news, they can begin planning and adapting.
Effective leaders recognize this psychological reality and address it head-on. They understand that their own emotional regulation serves as a model for their team’s response. When leaders project calm confidence amid chaos, they create what psychologists call “emotional contagion”—the transmission of emotional states from one person to others. By maintaining their composure, leaders literally help regulate their team’s nervous systems, enabling better thinking and more productive responses.
This doesn’t mean projecting false bravado or toxic positivity. Rather, the best leaders acknowledge challenges while demonstrating what some experts consider the most powerful leadership skill: balanced optimism. They combine a clear-eyed view of reality with confidence in their team’s ability to adapt and overcome. This approach builds psychological safety—the belief that one won’t be punished or humiliated for speaking up with ideas, questions, concerns, or mistakes.
Communication: The Cornerstone of Leading Through Uncertainty
Effective communication becomes exponentially more important during uncertain times. When information is limited or constantly changing, the communication gap often gets filled with rumors, anxiety, and worst-case scenarios. Leaders who excel during uncertainty prioritize transparent, consistent communication that acknowledges what is known, what remains unknown, and how decisions are being made.
Leadership experts emphasize that during times of uncertainty, communication should be:
- Frequent and predictable: Establish regular communication rhythms so team members know when to expect updates, even if the update is “we’re still gathering information.”
- Transparent about unknowns: Admitting what you don’t know builds more trust than pretending to have all the answers.
- Two-way: Create channels for questions, concerns, and ideas to flow upward.
- Focused on meaning: Help people understand the “why” behind decisions and changes.
When leaders communicate effectively during uncertainty, they reduce anxiety, prevent rumination, and channel team energy toward productive action rather than worry. Perhaps most importantly, the three words leaders should use more often—”I don’t know”—become powerful tools for building authenticity and trust rather than undermining authority.
Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty
One of the greatest challenges during uncertain times is how to make decisions when information is incomplete, contradictory, or constantly changing. Traditional decision-making models that rely on comprehensive data and predictable outcomes become less effective in volatile environments. Leaders who thrive during uncertainty adopt different approaches to decision-making that balance thoughtful analysis with the need for timely action.
Principles-Based Decision Making
Rather than having a rulebook for every possible scenario (impossible during truly uncertain times), effective leaders establish clear principles to guide decisions. These principles serve as a North Star, helping teams make aligned choices even when leaders aren’t present. For example, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, organizations that quickly established principles like “employee safety comes first” or “we prioritize maintaining core services” were able to make faster, more consistent decisions across different teams and locations.
The 70% Rule
Military leaders familiar with uncertainty often follow what’s called the 70% rule: When you have 70% of the information, feel 70% confident, and have explored 70% of the alternatives, it’s time to decide. Waiting for complete certainty often means missing opportunities or allowing problems to worsen. This approach acknowledges that perfect information is rarely available during uncertain times.
A powerful leadership sentence that changes everything in decision-making during uncertainty is: “With what we know today, this is the best decision we can make—and we’ll adapt as we learn more.” This approach builds confidence while maintaining flexibility.
Reversible vs. Irreversible Decisions
Jeff Bezos, who built Amazon during numerous uncertain periods, distinguishes between “one-way doors” (irreversible decisions) and “two-way doors” (reversible decisions). During uncertainty, leaders should move quickly through two-way doors while being more deliberate about one-way doors. This mental model prevents analysis paralysis while still protecting against catastrophic errors.
Building Resilient Teams for Uncertain Times
Uncertainty tests not just individual leaders but entire organizations. Leaders who successfully navigate uncertainty invest in building team resilience—the collective ability to absorb shocks, adapt to changing circumstances, and emerge stronger. Research shows that resilient teams share several key characteristics:
- Psychological safety: Team members feel safe taking risks and being vulnerable with each other.
- Shared purpose: The team has a compelling “why” that transcends immediate challenges.
- Diverse perspectives: Different viewpoints and experiences create more robust solutions.
- Learning orientation: Failures and setbacks are viewed as opportunities to learn rather than reasons to blame.
- Emotional support: Team members feel comfortable expressing concerns and supporting each other.
Building resilient teams requires intentional leadership. Experts recommend five specific tips for taking intentional action to strengthen team resilience during uncertain times. These include creating forums for honest dialogue, celebrating small wins, investing in skills development, modeling healthy boundaries, and reinforcing the team’s purpose and values.
Embracing Adaptive Leadership
Traditional leadership models often focus on having the right answers. But uncertainty demands what Harvard scholars call “adaptive leadership”—the ability to help organizations navigate challenges for which there are no simple, known solutions. Adaptive leaders recognize that yesterday’s answers may not solve today’s problems. They shift from being solution-providers to becoming facilitators of organizational learning and adaptation.
Higher education leaders who successfully navigated the unprecedented challenges of the pandemic exemplify this approach. Rather than clinging to established practices, they helped their institutions question assumptions, experiment with new approaches, and rapidly incorporate lessons learned.
Adaptive leadership during uncertainty involves:
- Distinguishing between technical problems (solvable with existing knowledge) and adaptive challenges (requiring new learning)
- Creating conditions for stakeholders to tackle difficult problems together
- Regulating distress by pacing change at a sustainable rate
- Giving work back to the people most affected by the challenges
- Protecting voices of leadership from all levels of the organization
This approach transforms uncertainty from something to be feared into a catalyst for organizational evolution and growth. It acknowledges that the solutions to our most complex challenges often emerge from collective intelligence rather than individual expertise.
The Power of Purpose and Values During Uncertainty
When the external environment becomes unpredictable, strong internal anchors become essential. Organizations and leaders that maintain clarity about their purpose and values navigate uncertainty more effectively. Purpose answers the question “why do we exist?” while values define “how we operate regardless of circumstances.”
During the 2008 financial crisis, companies with strong, well-articulated values made decisions faster and maintained higher employee engagement than those without clear values. When everything else is shifting, values provide guardrails for decision-making and behavior. They help answer questions like “How do we treat our customers during this disruption?” or “What approach should we take to potential layoffs?”
Leaders who successfully navigate uncertainty continually reinforce purpose and values through their communication and actions. They help team members see how their work contributes to meaningful outcomes even when short-term goals become unclear. As captured in powerful leadership quotes, “Purpose is the lighthouse that keeps us oriented when we can’t see the shore.”
Practical Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty
Beyond the conceptual frameworks, leaders need concrete practices to implement during uncertain times. Leadership development experts recommend several practical strategies:
1. Create scenarios rather than predictions
Rather than trying to predict a single future (increasingly impossible during true uncertainty), effective leaders work with their teams to develop multiple scenarios. This approach acknowledges a range of possible futures and helps organizations prepare for different contingencies. It shifts thinking from “what will happen?” to “how might we respond if X happens?”
2. Establish tripwires
Tripwires are predetermined signals that indicate when to reassess or change direction. They might be financial metrics, timeline milestones, or market indicators. By establishing these in advance, leaders prevent both premature abandonment of strategies and dangerous commitment escalation when approaches aren’t working.
3. Build diverse sounding boards
Uncertainty demands more perspectives, not fewer. Successful leaders deliberately seek input from people with different backgrounds, expertise, and thinking styles. This counters the natural tendency to retreat to trusted inner circles during stressful times.
4. Practice strategic patience
While some decisions require immediate action, others benefit from what military strategists call “strategic patience”—the discipline to wait for more information or for conditions to evolve before committing resources. Knowing which decisions need immediate attention versus which can wait is a critical skill during uncertainty.
5. Implement small experiments
Instead of making massive commitments amid uncertainty, effective leaders encourage small experiments with fast feedback loops. This approach limits risk while accelerating learning. Each experiment provides data that informs the next set of decisions.
6. Focus on what you can control
Uncertainty often triggers a sense of helplessness. Leaders counter this by helping teams distinguish between factors they can influence and those they cannot. This simple practice redirects energy from worry to productive action.
7. Build margin into systems
Resilience requires slack. Organizations operating at maximum efficiency have little capacity to absorb shocks or adapt to changing circumstances. Wise leaders build strategic redundancy into critical systems and maintain financial and operational buffers for turbulent times.
Personal Resilience: The Foundation of Leading Through Uncertainty
The demands of leading through uncertainty can take a tremendous toll on leaders themselves. The constant pressure to make high-stakes decisions with limited information, to support others while processing their own concerns, and to project confidence amid personal doubts creates significant stress. Leaders who maintain effectiveness during extended periods of uncertainty prioritize their own resilience.
This isn’t self-indulgence—it’s strategic necessity. Leadership during uncertainty is a marathon, not a sprint. Leaders who neglect their own wellbeing eventually make poorer decisions, communicate less effectively, and model unhealthy patterns for their teams.
Resilience practices for leaders include:
- Maintaining perspective through regular reflection and connection to purpose
- Building recovery into daily routines through adequate sleep, physical activity, and breaks
- Cultivating a support network of peers, mentors, and confidants who understand leadership challenges
- Practicing mindfulness to stay present rather than catastrophizing about possible futures
- Setting healthy boundaries around availability, information consumption, and work hours
Leadership development resources increasingly emphasize these practices as essential rather than optional. The most effective leaders view personal sustainability as a core leadership responsibility.
Embracing the Opportunity in Uncertainty
While uncertainty creates undeniable challenges, it also presents unique opportunities for organizations and leaders. Disruption often reveals inefficiencies, assumptions, and limitations that remain hidden during stable times. Leaders who approach uncertainty with a growth mindset—seeing it as a catalyst for learning and improvement rather than just a threat to be managed—often emerge stronger.
Historically, many breakthrough innovations and organizational transformations have emerged during periods of significant uncertainty. The companies that reimagined their business models during economic downturns, the healthcare organizations that pioneered new delivery models during crises, and the educational institutions that developed hybrid learning approaches during the pandemic all demonstrate how uncertainty can drive positive change.
Effective leaders help their teams see these possibilities without minimizing real challenges. They ask questions like “What are we learning that we wouldn’t have discovered otherwise?” and “What opportunities might this disruption create that weren’t possible before?” This orientation doesn’t eliminate the stress of uncertainty, but it provides a constructive channel for that energy.
Conclusion
Perhaps the ultimate secret to leading through uncertainty lies in embracing paradox. The most effective leaders demonstrate seemingly contradictory capabilities: they combine confidence with humility, stability with adaptability, and realism with optimism. They acknowledge difficult realities while inspiring hope. They make decisive moves while remaining open to new information.
This capacity for holding opposing ideas simultaneously—what F. Scott Fitzgerald called “the test of a first-rate intelligence”—enables leaders to navigate complexity without resorting to oversimplification. It allows them to provide both the psychological safety and the challenging stretch goals that teams need during uncertain times.
The ability to lead through uncertainty isn’t mystical or inborn—it’s a set of mindsets and practices that can be developed through intentional effort. By focusing on transparent communication, principled decision-making, team resilience, adaptive leadership, clear values, practical strategies, and personal sustainability, leaders at all levels can transform uncertainty from a threat into an opportunity for growth, innovation, and competitive advantage.
In a world where change continues to accelerate and disruption becomes the norm rather than the exception, these capabilities aren’t just nice-to-have leadership supplements—they’re essential skills for organizational survival and success. The secret to leading through uncertainty isn’t about having all the answers; it’s about asking the right questions, building collective capability, and maintaining the balance of stability and adaptability that uncertain times demand.
